Ehud Barak has won his gamble, with the Labor Central Committee voting 680 to 507 to approve joining in coalition with Likud, Yisrael Beiteinu and Shas. It's perhaps too early to tell if some of those Knesset members who strenuously opposed entering the coalition will bolt Labor or refuse to serve in the Cabinet.
One of the selling points was presumably the rather generous benefits offered by Bibi Netanyahu in the agreement hammered out between him and Barak just this morning: five Cabinet positions and two deputy minister posts will go to Labor, which has only 13 seats in the Knesset. Barak will stay at Defense, and Labor will also get the influential Trade and Industry Ministry along with some lesser portfolios.
Labor also extracted an agreement to work towards an economic recovery plan in coordination with the Histadrut, the big (Labor-led) trade union body.
Netanyahu put a lot on the table to bring Labor in, which may be a hopeful sign: it suggests he wanted to avoid an all-right-wing coalition, which could make dealings with the West more difficult. Barak also made sure that the Defense Minister will be involved in all major peace and security related diplomatic efforts, which will blunt somewhat the presence of Avigdor Lieberman in the Foreign Ministry.
If no other parties join the coalition, and no one bolts from Labor as a result of Barak joining it, Netanyahu will now have a majority of 66, or five more than he needs to govern. The ultra-secularist Lieberman and the ultra-religious Shas, though both of one mind on peace and settlements, will not play well together on issues such as conversion and military service for yeshiva students; Labor and Lieberman will agree on very little in terms of the peace process; it will be a fractious Cabinet in many ways. Netanyahu in his previous Prime Ministership (1996-1999) was not particularly skillful at keeping his coalition in line, but he has had a decade to mature and may be better this time.
Labor was deeply divided on this issue; Barak has won his battle but made some enemies in the process. It may not be the Israeli government many expected, but it could be fascinating to watch.
Tuesday, March 24, 2009
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