CSIS on Possible Israeli Strike on Iran

This report from CSIS by Abdullah Toukan and Anthony Cordesman on a possible Israeli nuclear strike against Iran has been out for a week but I'm just getting to it. It has Tony Cordesman's signature comprehensiveness — maps, charts, tables, quantification galore — and includes estimates of payloads, routes, the use of aircraft versus the use of ballistic missiles, etc. It's the fullest analysis I've seen of the difficulties involved if Israel were to try to hit the Iranian nuclear sites. It concludes what most such analyses have concluded: such an operation would entail great difficulties and open up many possible avenues for Iranian retaliation.

With the change of Administrations in Washington, the likelihood of a US strike at Iran seems much reduced, but with a right-wing government coming into power in Israel, pressures for a unilateral strike may intensify.

I think comparisons to Israel's 1981 Osirak raid are misleading. Osirak was Iraq's only nuclear site at the time, and was poorly defended. Iran has several sites (possibly some not yet discovered), they have SAM coverage, are at the maximum range of Israeli aircraft (unless ballistic missiles are used), and a release of radiation near major cities such as Esfahan could create human and environmental chaos. Not only could Iran strike back directly, but it could also disrupt shipping in the Gulf and otherwise wreak havoc.

And I think it's also important to remember that, as we finally learned in 1991 when the UN inspectors went into Iraq, the Osirak raid actually helped speed up Iraq's weapons program. I think the same thing would happen in Iran: any lingering doubts about weaponization would be removed.

The CSIS report deserves a wide readership.