The Arab World Looks Apprehensively at Lieberman

No one expects the Arab media to applaud an Israeli election, but the results of this one are being met with more apprehension than usual, comparable to the election of Ariel Sharon. Even the moderate, level-headed Beirut Daily Star headlines "Fanatic Emerges as Kingmaker After Razor-Thin Israeli Election," the web story illustrated by a particularly unflattering picture of Avigdor Lieberman. If you read Arabic, Al-Sharq al-Awsat is still holding out the possibility of a rotation agreement among "five scenarios," Some, like al-Ahram, play the news of the results pretty straight, though I haven't read all the editorial comments.

Meanwhile, the Israeli manuvering is continuing. Early reports suggest the soldier's vote will not alter the final totals; if true, the dilemma remains that Kadima won the most seats but Likud is likelier to be able to form a government.

Reading today's Israeli press I get the sense that most of the parties other than Kadima are maneuvering as if Netanyahu will have the first go at forming a government. Shas and United Torah Judaism seem to be trying to put together an Orthodox religious bloc that would have more seats than the (aggressively secularist) Lieberman. That might give them better posts than Yisrael Beiteinu gets. But Lieberman himself is still playing coy, with reports that Livni has offered him support for civil marriage alongside religious marriages, a key demand of Lieberman and anathema to the religious parties.

The dilemmas Livni faces are real, since it is hard to picture Labor and Meretz joining a Kadima-led Cabinet if Lieberman had a prominent position. The math is just a lot harder for Livni than for Netanyahu, but if Livni will not join a unity government unless she leads it, the possibilities of an all-rightist government are greater.

The key will be what various parties recommend to the President as to who is most likely to form a government. And that should emerge over the coming days.