Israel the Day After

The maneuvering is already under way even though the soldiers' vote won't be in until tomorrow (as well as a complex system whereby votes cast for parties that did not meet the 2% threshold are allocated to those who did). While it's still early in the coalition-building, I have a few observations on this first day of wheeling and dealing:

• Tzipi Livni was quick to suggest a rotation system like that agreed by Likud and Labor in 1984, to which I alluded last night. Likud has rejected this, at least at this stage.
• Continuing to look at how localities voted, Sderot, the town on the Gaza border most frequently hit by Qassam rockets from Gaza, voted heavily for Likud and Yisrael Beitenu. The right also did well in Ashkelon, also within occasional range. Thus Hamas seems to have helped the Israeli right. Elsewhere in the south, Kadima did a little better in Beer Sheva, but the right still did better.
  
• Only 12 parties made it over the 2% threshold. That suggests that the really minuscule special-interest parties were ignored while the more visible major parties drew the voters.
• Likud's comeback was impressive, even if it did not do quite as well as polls during the campaign suggested. Some wrote it off after its big losses in 2006. Clearly it's back.
• The left was hit hard. Labor is now the fourth largest party. Meretz, the dovish party to Labor's left, fell from five seats to three. Ehud Barak has indicated that Labor will not join a coalition, but will try to rebuild from oppsition.