What Does the High Turnout Mean?

One thing about a blog: unlike editing a quarterly, it gives you the power to make a fool of yourself instantly, rather than having to wait for publication. I therefore probably shouldn't speculate about what the turnout in the Israeli elections may mean until the results are in. But I'm going to take a gamble and speculate anyway.

Half of all voters had voted by 6 pm (the polls are open until 10 pm Israel time). Admittedly, the turnout is not exceptional, just higher than in 2006, but there had been predictions of widespread voter apathy.

Generally speaking, low turnout tends to benefit the small parties because they have committed cadres voting special interests; higher turnout helps the bigger parties. When polling stopped late last week Kadima was gaining and Likud weakening a bit, so bigger turnout might be good news for Kadima.

It may also have something to do with the Avigdor Lieberman factor. Lieberman and his Yisrael Beitenu party's surge in the polls may have persuaded voters on the left and center to turn out in order to block him. It's also been suggested that Israeli Arab voters are turning out to vote against Lieberman, who has suggested taking citizenship away and even transferring Arab populations. Only a few weeks ago many Israeli Arabs were urging a boycott of the elections to protest the Gaza operation. If turnout is high in the Arab towns, that may be a direct reaction to Lieberman's rise. There was an incident in the big Arab town of Umm al-Fahm in which a rightist figure was barred from the town where he was to be a poll-watcher, and some of the Arab parties have complained of irregularities, which certainly suggests they are not boycotting.

And, of course, the election is just step one in the formation of a government, whoever comes out head will still be a long way from forming a government. If the results are sufficiently fragmented, we may not know what the government will look like for weeks. Israel's electoral system, with its low threshold for parties to enter the Knesset, gives a lot of power to the small parties, and they drive hard bargains when the coalition-building begins.