More on Ayman Nour

Now that he has been released from prison, Ayman Nour is treading somewhat cautiously, giving interviews and holding press conferences in which he talks about rebuilding the Al-Ghad Party and indicating he will not resume his role as head of the party, a position held by a successor since his jailing.

Some of this is no doubt just natural caution. He is barred from public office unless a court overturns his conviction or (and this would be a real stretch) President Mubarak pardons him. On the other hand, Nour is a lawyer and Egypt's civil court system is still rather independent (which is why the government uses security courts for so many offenses). He will presumably seek a judicial ruling at some point.

It will be interesting to see what public opinion makes of him after all this. By some accounts, his imprisonment increased his popularity since it was seen as vindictive and trumped up. But the widespread US criticism of his jailing has led the government to broadly hint that Nour is some kind of American agent, or at least the Americans' favored politician. In the prsent environment that label could prove fatal to future political ambitions.

The fact that Saadeddin Ibrahim, the other best-known Egyptian critic of the regime, was released from prison but then charged again and is now living in the US in effective exile, must also be in Nour's mind as he ponders his future. It is only two and a half years until Mubarak's term is up, and if the intention is to have Gamal Mubarak succeed, there will probably be efforts made to give an impression of competitiveness to the elections. That could mean Nour might find himself able to run, though frankly he is not likely to have much more of a chance of winning than he had in 2005. But then, there are still many uncertainties about the succession and how it will come about.