Hizbullah Strongly Denies Rocket Firings: So Who?

Is some freelance group firing Katyushas at Israel? Hizbullah seemed particularly insistent that it didn't fire two rockets at northern Israel on Saturday. One landed in Maalot, the other fell within Lebanon. Clearly Hizbullah isn't eager to come under Israeli retaliatory fire (and Israel seems to have carried out some kind of minor operation along the Shebaa Farms occupation line), but this raises the question of who, if not Hizbullah, can fire Katyushas from somewhere south of Tyre.

Several answers spring to mind. In Lebanon's Wild South a rogue Hizbullah commander, some stray Palestinian radicals, or any of several splinter groups might be responsible. But it's the same problem we face in Gaza: even if the main resistance group (Hizbullah or Hamas) is standing down its rockets, anybody with a rocket launcher can disrupt a truce and bring down retribution, especially given Israel's rather quick retributive trigger finger. "Anybody with a rocket launcher" may seem a limited universe in many countries, but not in southern Lebanon.

It's also the problem that occurs when political weakness coincides with a proliferation of arms. You start down the spectrum that eventually leads to Somalia, to every man his own militia. I remember an old Lebanese hand telling me back during the civil war how he was driving on a road on Mount Lebanon one day and found himself behind an M-113 armored personnel carrier. APCs were pretty ubiquitous in those days (most of them stolen from the Lebanese Army), but they generally had the emblem of one of the militias on them. This one was unmarked. A private APC? Maybe there are private Katyusha launchers too though that particular anecdote dates from the civil war years.

So far, Israel's response to the rocket fire has been restrained. Hizbullah's quick disavowal is also rather interesting, since it comes at a time when (in a Lebanese political context) Hizbullah has been rather assertive. I think they want to do well in the upcoming elections, not provoke Israel and a new retaliation.