Ayman Nour is Out of Jail

Ayman Nour, head of Egypt's al-Ghad (Tomorrow) party and former Presidential candidate, has been released from prison, ostensibly for medical reasons. Nour's imprisonment soun after he lost the first direct Presidential elections to Husni Mubarak had been a subject of tension between Washington and Cairo, and therefore there is naturally speculation about what message his release at this time is meant to convey. The Arabist suggests that it is not just a gesture to Barack Obama, but perhaps also a message that Mubarak will do things on his own timetable and US pressure does ot work. I think that may be a credible interpretation.

Nour's imprisonment damaged US-Egyptian relations, as had the earlier imprisonment of Saadeddin Ibrahim, and one question that emerges is why the government was so intent on silencing Nour. Part of it may be that as a somewhat populist member of the younger generation (he is now 44), Nour might pose a challenge to the (presumed) succession of Gamal Mubarak. (In fact, at one time Gamal formed a "Future" movement which some thought might evolve into a party; Nour formed a party named "Tomorrow." Coincidence?)

Nour also did not play by the rather restrictive rules under which Egypt's legal opposition parties operated. He rose in the old-guard Wafd Party, but split with the Wafd to form Ghad. In the 2005 elections he ran as a Presidential candidate although the opposition candidate the government had in position, Wafd leader Nu'man Gomaa, was the "official" opposition challenger. (Gomaa was of the older generation and from Mubarak's home province.) Nour ran second, and Gomaa third, which was not the preferred script for the results since it gave Nour a claim to be the leading opposition figure.

Nour was imprisoned for alleged forgery of signatures (powers of attorney) for the petitions founding the party; the arrest thus challenged the legality of the party as well as put him in jail. It seemed pretty clear that this was a pretext for arresting someone the government had already decided needed to be taken off the political stage. Though now released, unless Nour's conviction is overturned in court, his record will bar him from running for political office again,

As for the release's timing, it can be interpreted as a gesture to the new US Administration if Washington wishes, while also showing, as The Arabist noted, that Mubarak did not yield to Bush Administration pressure. And it allows for a claim of humanitarian concern, since Nour was suffering from diabetes in prison, and health concerns seem to be the ostensible reason for his rdelease at this time.

And meanwhile, presumably Nour has learned the message that the government tends to send opposition figures from time to time: there are limits to what will be tolerated.