Last Day for Publishing Polls in Israel

Today is the last day political polling results can be published in Israel before Tuesday's election, and the polling seems to show two things: first that Tzipi Livni's Kadima has moved closer to Binyamin Netanyahu's Likud, and second that Likud is losing support not to the center left but to the right, Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beitenu. The Haaretz poll puts Likud only two seats ahead of Kadima, but with Yisrael Beitenu winning 18 seats, making it the third largest bloc, with Ehud Barak's Labor relegated to fourth place at 14 seats.

Lieberman's statements in the past have seemed supportive of population transfer, of transferring Israeli Arab towns to the Palestinian Authority, and he is often seen as promoting an anti-Arab agenda. Hanoch Daum at Yediot Aharanot's website argues he may not really be as bad as he is portrayed, but the surge in support for Yisrael Beitenu -- "Israel is our home," originally a Soviet Union-immigrant party, but now drawing right-nationalist support from other sectors -- seems if anything to be pushing Likud to the right, with Netanyahu saying he can work with Lieberman. A Jerusalem Post analysis here; the Beirut Daily Star's here.

Despite Livni's surge, one has to remember that Israeli governments are always coalitions: never in the history of the state has one party held a true majority. From 1948 to 1977, Labor always dominated, but had to form coalitions with religious parties and others; since 1977, Labor and Likud have usually alternated, until the emergence of Kadima when Ariel Sharon split with Likud. I'll talk more about Israel's political history as the results are known and the deal-making begins.

At this point the rightist parties and religious parties together seem to be polling at about 65 seats and the left including Kadima only about 55. Though Netanyahu might seek to form a centrist coalition or a unity government across the mainstream, he would also have a chance of governing from the right, with Lieberman and the religious Shas party, for example. Whatever the results, unless there is a dramatic shift, the next government is likely to be to the right of the outgoing one. If Kadima and Likud are close together, we could see weeks of coalition maneuvering. George Mitchell's efforts to restart the peace process will have to tread water while Israel sorts out its government.

Kadima's surge suggests this isn't completely over yet, and as I noted in my Gaza post, a truce agreement on Gaza before Tuesday might have an impact; there's also press speculation that a deal might be cut to free Gilad Shalit, the Israeli soldier held by Hamas since 2006.