Cardinal Sfeir versus General Aoun

It's easy to criticize the Middle East for its lack of Western-style democracies, but I find myself writing the second post of the day about electoral politics: first in Iran, now in Lebanon. The Lebanese will be holding general elections for Parliament on June 7, under a new electoral law recently adopted (actually, a return to an older electoral system). Now the Maronite Patriarch, Mar Boutros Cardinal Sfeir, has stirred up a tempest in the Maronite community by remarks which seemed to denounce the Free Patriotic Movement of General Michel Aoun. The Daily Star's take is here; more on the subject here, here, and here.

Reading these stories will not be very enlightening to those who do not follow Lebanese politics, since the vicissitudes of Lebanon's factions frequently shift. The Maronites, the largest Lebanese Christian grouping, dominated Lebanese politics until the civil war; today, with their influence and numbers reduced, they are divided politically. Sfeir has long been active in politics, as are other Maronite bishops and the powerful Order of Monks.

The main traditional Maronite parties are part of the "March 14" bloc, named for a huge demonstration in 2005 after the assassination of Rafiq Hariri. But in the 2006 Parliamentary elections, the Maronite partry which won the most seats was the Fre Patriotic Movemnt of Genral Aoun.

Aoun's political history is somewhat bewildering to anyone seeking to neatly categorize and pigeonhole a politician's alignment. In 1988-1990 Aoun, as Prime Minister and Acting President of one of two rival Lebanese governments, essentially fought his own war with Syria. When defeated, he fled into exile. Yet, when he returned to his homeland in 2006, his Free Patriotic Movement suddenly took a pro-Syrian tack and allied politically with Hizbullah. It is this "March 8" front that the Patriarch openly criticized.

Based on the press reports, Cardinal Sfeir's message seems to be that Maronites need to be united and that, when they are not, they suffer. The fact that Aoun has more seats in the present Parliament than the traditional Maronite Phalanges (Kata'ib) might suggest uniting behind Aoun, but his current alliances go against the conservative, right-of-center leanings of the Church.

Some have criticized the Patriarch for plunging into politics, but the 88-year-old Sfeir has been politically outspoken throughout his patriarchate, to which he was elevated in 1986. He has clashed with Aoun before. And, as some of his supporters have been quick to note, Aoun's criticism of clerics intervening in politics does not extend to Hizbullah leader Hasan Nasrallah, who is a Shi'ite cleric.

An open breach between the church hierarchy and Aoun could undercut his support among Maronites, which, presumably, is Sfeir's intention.