Early Iraqi Returns

Since official results won't be in for some time, I won't try yet to analyze the results of Saturday's Iraqi provincial elections; full-time Iraq watchers are trying to read the tea leaves; Juan Cole's wrapup today gives the main early indicators. One preliminary comment I do want to offer, however, is this: some analysts are characterizing the reported turnout of 51% of eligible voters as "disappointing," because it is down from earlier elections. I think we should recall that provincial elections, important as they are, are not national elections, and that many local elections in the US produce far smaller turnouts.

The other immediate point is that as of this morning there appear to be no confirmed deaths, though there was some violence. This would seem to be another indicator of the growing stability, though by all accounts the country was pretty much locked down for the voting.

I'll hold off on further analysis until we have some more reliable results.